The U.S. housing market has seen major shifts over the past two decades, with some areas experiencing booms and busts while others remain on a steadier path. For most homebuyers and investors, knowing where home values have historically held firm through economic ups and downs is critical.
A new study from Construction Coverage identifies the most and least stable housing markets in the country. Analyzing home price trends since 2000, researchers ranked states and major metros based on the likelihood that a random homebuyer would have experienced a price drop greater than 5% following their purchase.
Key Takeaways, With Data for New York State
- Housing vs. Stock Market: The U.S. housing market has offered more stability than the stock market over the past 25 years. But while home prices have been less volatile, long-term gains have been lower (+196% for the Zillow Home Value Index vs. +322% for the S&P 500 Index).
- State-Level Stability: Home price stability varies dramatically by location. Five states never saw median home prices drop by more than 5% at any point over the past 25 years, generally due to lower population growth and steady local economies that shield them from extreme price swings.
- Housing Market Stability in New York State: Over the last 25 years, the largest drop New York State has seen in its median home price was 11.4%. With a 15.1% chance of experiencing a price drop of at least 5% since 2000, New York State is a bit less volatile than average (26.4% chance).
The full report covers more than 200 U.S. metros and all states with complete data available, with a detailed breakdown of home price changes in each market since 2000. We've also included a link to high-resolution, downloadable graphics at the bottom of this email.