New York is struggling with unemployment, with last week’s claims 107.50% higher than the week before and 2.85% higher than last year, according to WalletHub’s updated rankings for the States Where Unemployment Claims Are Decreasing the Most.
Unemployment Situation in New York (1=Best; 25=Avg.):
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Overall Rank for New York: 50th
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50th – Unemployment Claims Decrease vs. Previous Week
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22nd – Unemployment Claims Decrease vs. Same Week Last Year
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15th – Cumulative Unemployment Claims in 2025 vs. Same Period Last Year
- 50th – Unemployment Claims per 100,000 People in Labor Force
Expert Commentary
Given the current circumstances, what trends do you expect to see in terms of unemployment in the foreseeable future?
“Unemployment is highly responsive to the Fed’s decisions and announcements. Depending on the Fed's actions, market behavior may vary. Currently, interest rate cuts are on hold, making the future of unemployment uncertain. That said, I expect a slight slowdown in inflation and stable unemployment, which has been the trend. However, if inflation does not cool down, the Fed may be forced to take action, increasing the risk of higher unemployment and a recession.”
Diego A. Guerrero – Lead Economist, Northwestern University
“Unemployment will still continue to be an issue in some industries and in some locations. As the workforce gets tighter aligning the available workers with the available jobs becomes the more critical challenge. I foresee that employers are going to have to look more closely at the upcoming availability of new workers in a geographic region, with the skill sets, or with the ability to acquire those skill sets, as they look for site locations of future businesses. Where are the workers going to come from? If unemployment is low, how are you going to attract the workers you need away from other employers? How are you going to keep them once you have them? You can have the best business plan, and the best product, if you don't have the people to make that product, how successful will you be.”
Douglas Swanson, Ed.D, ACUE – Labor Studies Program Coordinator; Associate Professor, University of St. Louis Missouri
What are your predictions for the job market as we move forward during 2025 (job gains, hiring confidence, quit rates etc.)?
“Quit rates have fallen significantly since the record highs in the immediate post-pandemic days and are likely to stay low or decline further. Businesses are likely to vary in their hiring patterns depending on whether they end up being net winners or losers under the new federal administration’s policies. And, of course, it remains to be seen what the effects will be of increasing use of AI. It is unlikely to have large effects over 2025, other than continuing high demand for those few workers who have a solid understanding of AI programming and usage.”
Joyce P. Jacobsen – Professor, Hobart and William Smith Colleges and Wesleyan University
“I think in 2025 and probably throughout the rest of this decade we are going to see a return to employers bringing the training in house and recruiting people who have potential to do the jobs that they need. If done right that could actually help create a situation that tailors the workers interest, with the employer's needs creating the workplace loyalty that we often hear from employers that they don't believe exists any longer. As workers have more options in employment, and if they are not happy with their work and/or conditions, they will explore the other options that are out there. When unemployment was in the double digits, you often heard of workers keeping the job that they had, regardless, because finding another one was not as easy. That is the dynamic that is changing. Already I am seeing employers shifting from a focus on ‘how do we hire’ to ‘how do we retain’ the workers we have.”
Douglas Swanson, Ed.D, ACUE – Labor Studies Program Coordinator; Associate Professor, University of St. Louis Missouri
Do you think the hiring dynamic is currently tilted in favor of employees or employers?
“The pandemic led to a tight labor market with increased competition. In other words, it reduced employer market power and allowed workers to find new jobs when salaries failed to meet expectations. But the pandemic days are now behind us. Job postings tracked by the Federal Reserve have shrunk by 33% since their peak in 2022. While new jobs continue to be added and unemployment remains low, switching jobs may be harder today than in the early post-pandemic period. Additionally, the U.S. economy – already characterized by low job quality and limited worker benefits compared to other developed economies– has increasingly tilted toward employers as unions have declined, minimum wages eroded, and new technologies threaten worker displacement. Lastly, it remains uncertain whether the new administration will alter the antitrust regulations championed by the former administration, including guidelines aimed at reducing employers' labor market power.”
Diego A. Guerrero – Lead Economist, Northwestern University
“I believe the dynamic has shifted, or at least begun its shift, from the employer’s advantage to the employee’s advantage… Already annually many states are experiencing more workers retiring from the workforce then they are seeing high school graduates entering the workforce. Couple that with the often rapidly changing immigration policies, which has resulted in some of the lowest immigration years in our nation's history, occurring in the past decade, I foresee the workforce getting tighter and as a result employees having greater options. That is why I think the dynamics are shifting and are going to continue to shift even more in the coming years.”
Douglas Swanson, Ed.D, ACUE – Labor Studies Program Coordinator; Associate Professor, University of St. Louis Missouri